Predictify the Presidential elections

Question: Who is going to win the Democratic primary nomination
Prediction: Barrack Obama

That is according to Predictify, an online site crowdcasting site that uses the wisdom of the masses to "predict" the outcome of events.

image The Preditify process is simple. On the site, you can either predict the outcome of events, or pose a question along with multiple choices, and let the global crystal ball steer you towards the truth.

Posting is free if you want up to 200 responses (after which that poll is closed), or you can post a premium question for which you get charged $1 per response up to the maximum number responses that you want to generate. Premium questions ask for some personal information from users. The overall demographic information is available online and also shared with the poster of the question.

The following were the responses to the predictions for the Oscar for best picture.

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Questions range from politics and current events to sports and pop culture.

So can the wisdom of the crowds be trusted? You be the judge

Question: What position will Hillary Clinton finish in the 2008 Iowa caucus?
Prediction: 1st
Actual: 3rd

Question: Who will capture the most delegates in the Republican primaries on super Tuesday?
Prediction: John McCain
Actual: John McCain

The first poll (at the top of this post) which places Barrack Obama as the popular choice for the democratic primary nomination might be suffering from population bias at this point (as they say, time will tell). Young, energetic democratic voters who spend a large part of their time on the web would be expected to support Barrack Obama in large numbers.

Which brings us to the next question; is there any real money to be made on the site? The answer is yes but it depends upon your definition of real. Part of the pot in premium questions is shared with the predictors. The amount depends on their accuracy, level of expertise and how quickly the users responded to the question (ie before the wisdom of the crowds became apparent).

The current top winners on Predictify are listed below. the #1 predictor’s payout is $154 or about $0.05 per question. There are respondents who have higher accuracies and are generating $0.50 per poll. Meanwhile, it would be safe to predict that the users of the site are hanging on to their day jobs!

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Question: Would you trust the wisdom of the crowds to make business decisions?
Take our poll (current poll is on the side bar; see here for past polls).


One Response to “Predictify the Presidential elections”

  1. By BillCave on Feb 7, 2022 | Reply

    No online open to all system can give a reliable results.

    For example, Digg, which is a great example of crowd sourcing, is skewed towards Steve-jobs-loving-MS-hater-google-groupies. Completely useless for genuine “data” that one can use.

    Predictify is a wrong name for this - it can never predict anything. It can only show what a small minority with special handicap is acting on. If you add $$ to the response, it skews the results even more.

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